Siendo las 22.30 horas ya están claros los datos de la elección: Juntos se impuso al Frente de Todos en todo el país por casi 9 puntos: 42.26% contra 33.74% aproximadamente (LN). Si es un hecho que el Frente de Todos recupera algunos puntos en la provincia de Buenos Aires, de todos modos pierde en el principal distrito del país así como la elección nacionalmente sin que se hayan operado grandes modificaciones respecto de las PASO (incluso el numero de votantes subió sólo levemente, del 67% del padrón en septiembre al 71% en el día de hoy, el porcentaje más bajo para las generales desde el 2011).
Fuera de las dos fuerzas patronales principales –en votos y en orgánica-, una tercera fuerza electoral emergente es la extrema derecha de Milei y Espert, que termina haciendo su debut electoral con importantes votaciones en CABA, sobre todo, y en la provincia de Buenos Aires (bastante más atrás).
Por otra parte, la izquierda expresada en este caso solo por el FITU (por la proscripción de nuestro partido en los principales distritos), obtiene una muy buena elección. En términos de representación se parece bastante a la del 2013: 4 diputados a nivel nacional (en el 2013, el FIT obtuvo 3 diputados nacionales y rozó un cuarto).
La elección, con ser importante, está lejos de ser “histórica” como se atribuyen sus integrantes. Ocurre que el dato político general es que la elección se ha corrido a una andarivel conservador, es decir, se ha expresado en un voto castigo a favor de Juntos, así como en la emergencia de Milei y Espert.
Sin embargo, y como contrapeso, también es verdad que, en cierto modo, la votación de la izquierda (sumados el FITU y también la performance de nuestro partido en las PASO, con casi 150.000 votos) expresa la emergencia potencial de un polo político a la izquierda del gobierno, que para madurar orgánicamente dependerá del desarrollo de la lucha de clases así como de la propia intervención de la izquierda (de su política y orientación[1]).
Más allá de esto, el dato central objetivo es que el Frente de Todos sale con una fuerte derrota –electoral y política- a pesar de la leve remontada en la provincia de Buenos Aires. La debilidad del gobierno expresada en sus falta de espalda económica, en la espada de Damocles que pende del acuerdo con el FMI y su debilitamiento político sumado a la escalada del dólar y las diferencias alrededor del rumbo en el frente gubernamental, auguran una fuerte crisis a partir de mañana.
Mucho dependerá de cómo sea leído el resultado electoral por los distintos actores. Por lo pronto, en el Frente de Todos se juramentó unidad y Alberto acaba de anunciar que llevarán al Congreso Nacional próximamente un borrador de acuerdo con el FMI. Por lo demás, la unificación de la CGT tiene mucho de operativo de contención para apuntalar a Alberto Fernández.
Juntos, por su parte, está lejísimo de haber resuelto su interna (no quiere saber nada de desestabilizar la gobernabilidad, y menos prematuramente). No se sabe si dominarán la escena las “palomas” vinculados a Larreta y Vidal o los “halcones” vinculados a Macri y Bullrich. Halcones que le hacen crecientes guiños a Milei, que se alzó con una importante elección en CABA, distrito que aparece como la “capital nacional” de la extrema derecha emergente (un fenómeno nuevo que no puede despreciarse).
Sin embargo, no se trata de leer la elección de manera mecánica (o de impresionarse). Si existe sin duda una fracción de las clases medias colocada a derecha extrema, entre los trabajadores el voto opositor que ha podido expresarse en Juntos o, incluso, en variantes más a la derecha, tiene más elementos de un voto castigo -por una vía conservadora- que de un giro a la derecha: ¡el desencanto con el gobierno es inmenso y justificado porque se dedicó, lisa y llanamente, a aplicar un ajuste en medio de la pandemia!
Por otra parte está, por lo demás, el contrapeso del voto a la izquierda, en este caso acaparado por el FITU (que sigue beneficiándose y usufructuando la ley proscriptiva contra nuestro partido), que alcanza nacionalmente el 6% de los votos. Es una cifra de importancia -pero de ninguna manera “histórica” como afirman sus integrantes- algo por encima del promedio a otras elecciones de mediano término (atentos que nuestro partido promedia nacionalmente cerca del 1% y en las provincias donde pasamos las PASO hicimos una elección digna aun participando fuera de cualquier frente[2]).
Así las cosas, si las elecciones son un reflejo distorsionado de la lucha de clases, y existen fuerzas sociales “extraparlamentarias” de enorme importancia que no participan en ellas como la burocracia sindical. Habrá que ver cómo se expresan estos datos de la “estadística electoral” en la crisis y luchas que se vienen.
Que se está ante una potencial una crisis general es un dato casi insalvable; aunque habrá que ver qué manejo hace de los tiempos –y de sus escasos márgenes de maniobra- Alberto Fernández, el nivel de crisis en que quede el kirchnerismo, así como qué papel quiere jugar la oposición patronal.
Un dato de enorme importancia será si el movimiento de masas logra irrumpir en medio de la crisis. Venimos de dos largos años de pandemia, razón por la cual sería un error creer que esta foto que devuelven las elecciones es “definitiva”: puede reflejar más el período de “cerrazón” que se está terminando, que la apertura que comienza…
Así las cosas, en todo caso, de abrirse una crisis y una respuesta popular (se verá ambos desarrollos), la cuestión es qué papel cumplirá la izquierda en la misma. Al FITU le gusta presentarse como una “tercera fuerza” pero soslaya el hecho que es un frente único de cuatro organizaciones; se verá como pasan la prueba ante una crisis y lucha de clases incrementada…
No somos sectarios. Reconocemos que el FITU acapara un espacio electoral de importancia. Sin embargo, opinamos que nuestro partido, nuestra militancia y nuestras figuras vienen haciendo un gran aporte al papel general de la izquierda. Sin ir más lejos, nuestra contribución para marcar agenda política durante las PASO fue de enorme importancia, ayudando incluso al aumento del caudal electoral del FITU. Y, en la elección del día de hoy, recogimos 30.000 votos entre los cinco distritos donde nos presentamos[3].
Nuestro partido ha defendido su independencia política aun si esto significó haber sido marginado del FITU. No nos dejamos impresionar por los votos y los diputados. Tampoco los abordamos de manera sectaria: pueden ser una palanca para la lucha de clases si se comportan de manera revolucionaria.
A partir de mañana la coyuntura sale de la “pausa” impuesta por la larga ronda electoral y nuestro partido -con toda nuestra joven y aguerrida militancia, nuestras agrupaciones de trabajadores y nuestras figuras- estaremos en la primera línea de las luchas así como en los medios disputando una salida a la crisis desde la izquierda: desde los trabajadores y la juventud, anticapitalista y revolucionaria.
Comité Ejecutivo del Nuevo MAS, 14 de noviembre del 2021
[1]Desde ya que anunciar votaciones “históricas” con un nivel promedio de lucha de clases relativamente estable, es, por decir lo menos, un error. Y más aun cuando el fitu desarrolló la campaña electoral más conservadora, más vaciada políticamente que se tenga memoria.
[2]Histórica en todo caso fue la elección del 2013 porque se rompió el record del millón de votos por primera vez en la izquierda. En este caso se conquistó un diputado más, 4 en vez de 3, pero de ahí a considerar histórica la votación hay un largo trecho (por poner una referencia, una elección histórica sería totalizar dos dígitos a nivel nacional quedando como alternativa, lo que eso nos colocaría frente a desafíos de índole muchísimo más complejos que sólo electorales; desafíos revolucionarios).
[3]Obtuvimos el 2.34% de los votos en La Pampa, el 2.08% en Santa Cruz, el 1.68% en Tierra del Fuego, el 1.62% en Río Negro y el 1.44% en Entre Ríos participando como Nuevo MAS.
No por seguir diciendolo se va a convertir en realidad… Ustedes se autoproscribieron del FITU!
Ahora diganlo sin llorar “comite ejecutivo”
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