Incendios que recorren el mundo (Argentina no es la excepción), inundaciones en China, Alemania o Venezuela, olas de calor, sequías, huracanes, grados de contaminación potencialmente letales y hasta hambrunas. Esas fueron las postales dejadas por el cambio climático en los últimos dos años. Eso sin nombrar la más evidente: la pandemia del Covid – 19, un producto de la destrucción indiscriminada de la naturaleza por el modo de producción capitalista.
En este contexto se reúne la COP26, la Cumbre Climática de la ONU en la ciudad de Glasgow, Escocia. La cumbre estaba prevista para el año pasado, pero fue aplazada por la pandemia.
De París a Glasgow
El punto central de la Cumbre será revisar y actualizar los objetivos planteados por los países miembros en el Acuerdo de París, establecido en 2015. En él se planteó un objetivo limitado pero concreto: que la temperatura del planeta no aumente por encima de los 2 grados centígrados por encima de niveles pre – industriales y, de ser posible, mantenerla por debajo de los 1,5 grados.
Pero han pasado 6 años del Acuerdo de París, y la temperatura del planeta ya se encuentra 1,1 grados centígrados por encima de niveles pre – industriales. La conclusión es simple: los gobiernos capitalistas del planeta no han tomado medidas concretas para reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Es más: se estima que, según las tendencias de emisión actuales, la temperatura aumentará 2,7 grados.
Las emisiones no han dejado de crecer, y marcaron un nuevo récord en 2020. El cambio climático ya ha generado daños que serán irreversibles durante (cuando menos) varios siglos. Mientras los gobiernos estiran la famosa «transición sustentable», el tiempo que separa a la humanidad de daños irreversibles en términos históricos (es decir, catastróficos) se acorta.
Según la propia ONU, los recortes de emisión previstos por los países miembros para 2030 ya son un 7% mayores que en años anteriores. Pero eso no alcanza. En el mejor de los casos, las emisiones deberían reducirse al menos un 22% más para que el aumento de la temperatura no sobrepase los 2 grados. Para mantenerlo por debajo de los 1,5 grados, las emisiones deberían reducirse en un 50%.
Esto significaría, obviamente, una mega – inversión a nivel global para el traspaso de los combustibles fósiles hacia nuevas energías sustentables. Los gobiernos del mundo (y los capitalistas) deberían renunciar a millones de dólares de sus ganancias rápidas con el petróleo para organizar la economía mundial de forma armónica con la naturaleza. Esa es la razón por la cual el Acuerdo de París parece dirigirse hacia un fracaso anticipado.
Por poner un ejemplo de la mezquindad capitalista, mencionemos que ni siquiera se han cumplido los objetivos de asistencia financiera pactados en el Acuerdo de París. De los 100.000 millones de dólares anuales que las potencias deberían otorgar a los países «subdesarrollados» para ayudar a la reducción de emisiones, tan sólo se están ejecutando 79.000 millones.
Un llamado de atención para el capitalismo ecocida
Tras pasar los últimos años pateando el problema para adelante, los gobiernos capitalistas del mundo se han calzado sus mejores trajes para hacer buena letra en la COP26. Hubo dos excepciones: Xi Jinping y Putin. Los mandatarios chinos y rusos, conocidos por no ser muy amigos de los acuerdos climáticos, no asistieron al acto de apertura de la Cumbre.
Biden, por otro lado, realzó en su discurso la voluntad yanqui de elevar sus compromisos ecológicos para el próximo período. De pasada, aprovechó para golpear a Trump, que había dictado la salida de EEUU del Acuerdo de París.
Boris Johnson, el premier británico, generó sorpresa al citar a la activista Greta Thunberg en su discurso. «Ha habido mucho ‘bla bla’ desde el Acuerdo de París», dijo el mandatario, haciendo referencia a un discurso pronunciado por Thunberg algunos meses atrás en Alemania. Y agregó que, si la COP fracasa, «la ira de mundo será incontenible, las futuras generaciones no nos lo perdonarán». Más allá de la hipocresía de estas palabras en boca del Primer Ministro reaccionario proveniente de una potencia capitalista (es decir, uno de los responsables directos de frenar el calentamiento global) el discurso de Johnson esconde una advertencia.
Junto a las consecuencias del calentamiento global, ha crecido en todo el mundo el movimiento ecologista juvenil, la respuesta de las nuevas generaciones a un sistema capitalista que pone en peligro su futuro. Y dicho movimiento pone en cuestión la política de los gobiernos capitalistas del planeta en su conjunto, pone en cuestión su legitimidad y capacidad para resolver la cuestión ecológica. Es cierto que los discursos pro – ecológicos de los mandatarios no pasan de la pose políticamente correcta, y que hasta el momento no se han tomado medidas concretas que apunten a solucionar el problema.
Pero, con el surgimiento del movimiento ecologista, los gobiernos capitalistas se enfrentan a un problema no sólo ecológico sino también político: frenar el cambio climático, o sufrir «la ira» de las nuevas generaciones. En el contexto de esa disyuntiva se desarrollará la Cumbre de Glasgow.
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